You can find a list of the 2024 Artios winners here.

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Thanks to all the recent awards shows and events occurring before Oscar night, it seems like a lot of these Oscar races are foregone conclusions by the time we get to the actual ceremony. However, that’s not the case this year, as I have discussed over the last few days. Honestly, I think Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the only sure thing, though I would be genuinely shocked if Robert Downey Jr. doesn’t also win.

Meanwhile, in the Best Actor race, it is a real toss-up between the two frontrunners. So without any further delay, let’s name the nominees. They are: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer, Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers, Jeffrey Wright for American Fiction, Bradley Cooper for Maestro and Colman Domingo for Rustin.

First things first, as usual. I have long been a fan of both Jeffrey Wright and Colman Domingo, each of whom has earned his first Oscar nomination. Both are well deserved. Domingo gives a truly transcendent performance in a mediocre movie about the legendary activist, and it’s a pleasure to see him honored here. Wright, who is for my money the best James Gordon ever to appear on the big screen, is just as tremendous in writer-director Cord Jefferson’s winning satire. They both belong here, but neither one is going to win. Sometimes in these commentaries I talk about how a certain performance might win an award in any other year, but I honestly think that doesn’t apply to either of these men or their work. I think, as good as these performances are, they are good enough to be nominated in just about any given year, but never to win.

However, since both performances are this year, then the conversation becomes academic, and so we move on to Bradley Cooper. This is a special case. Maestro is the second film he has directed, and he has starred in both, each time directing himself to a Best Actor nomination. A few years ago, when he did it with A Star Is Born, he lost the Oscar to Rami Malek, playing Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. In the lead-up to that Oscar ceremony, I said that Malek was going to win and that he deserved it. As time has gone by, though, that judgment hasn’t aged well. Especially — and you might find this odd, but I will explain — after seeing Taron Egerton’s performance as Elton John in Rocketman. Both Egerton and Cooper sang their own songs, while Malek lip-synched his. Also, Cooper directed himself, which is not easy. Don’t get me wrong, Rami was terrific in the movie, but in retrospect, I think Brad was robbed.

This year, however, no hindsight will change the fact that, while he is as outstanding as Leonard Bernstein, it feels like he was absolutely begging the Academy to give him an Oscar. I believe that there’s a desperation to the movie that somehow taints it. Maybe it’s because so many people — myself included — feel like he chose to tell the wrong story, I don’t know, but while I enjoyed the film, it wasn’t as good as maybe it should have been. I know a lot of other people feel that way, too, which is one more reason why he won’t win this.

The two biggest reasons for Cooper’s loss are Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti, both of whom are off-the-charts brilliant in Oppenheimer and The Holdovers, respectively. These two are so good, it’s almost a shame they had to happen in the same year because they both deserve to win. Murphy transforms himself into the father of the atomic bomb, and no matter what I may think of the movie as a whole — I think it’s very good, but not great. I know I’m in the minority here, both about the film and Christopher Nolan, who I think is a fantastic filmmaker, while also being terribly overrated.

Murphy’s brilliance is undeniable, but the same can be said for Giamatti, who never seems to do anything that isn’t amazing. That’s certainly true here, as he takes a difficult character who verges on the supremely unlikable, and gives him heart and charisma, while also pulling off a genuine arc. The moment at the end of the movie in which his wall-eyed teacher tells his young charge which eye is the right one to look at does something that’s incredibly hard for an actor to pull off. The delivery is matter-of-fact, but the meaning behind it is so deep, without coming off as maudlin or cloying, it can bring tears to your eyes. It sure did to mine.

These two guys are in a real horse race. Murphy has been the frontrunner since his movie premiered in July, and while Giamatti has been in the race since he turned up on screens in October, his rise to challenge Murphy has happened slowly, a bit at a time, as more and more people saw The Holdovers and found themselves talking about Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Paul Giamatti and holy cow, were they phenomenal or what? As that’s happened, Giamatti has caught Murphy, and I dare say surged past him. The charming photo of Giamatti at an In-N-Out Burger after winning the Golden Globe can only help.

It really could go to either guy, but I don’t care that Murphy won the SAG award. I still think Giamatti pulls it out in the end. I won’t be devastated if he doesn’t, because Murphy will have earned it, but both my heart and my head say that the trophy goes home with Paul. Maybe even to In-N-Out Burger.

Who Should Win: Paul Giamatti
Who Will Win: Paul Giamatti

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As much as I loved her as and in Barbie, I don’t know who I would remove from the list of nominees in her stead. All five of them are more than deserving, and I refuse to play that game where I complain about someone not getting a nomination and then failing to say who should not have. You might recall that just a few weeks ago, I said Rachel Weisz deserved Lizzy Caplan’s Emmy nomination for Best Actress in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or TV Movie, and I have had a crush on Lizzy for over a decade. Empty talk is not my thing.

Let’s get into who the nominees are. They are: Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon, Emma Stone for Poor Things, Carey Mulligan for Maestro, Annette Bening for Nyad and Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall.

Carey Mulligan is a phenomenally talented actress who has now earned three Oscar nominations, and I think she deserved to win three years ago over Frances McDormand, who won for Nomadland. What Mulligan did in Promising Young Woman was incredible, and it’s fair to say that she never gives anything but a spectacular performance. The same is true this year for what she did in Maestro, but that movie just never really measured up to the hype. And while she and her director and co-star Bradley Cooper (more about him tomorrow) both deserve their places here, neither is going to win.

Nor, for that matter, is Sandra Hüller, who I think is an amazing talent and I love seeing everything she does. Anatomy of a Fall is an outstanding film that is carried by her performance, and honestly, I think she’s the reason why Robbie isn’t on this list. Or possibly Annette Bening, who is simply astonishing as Diana Nyad in the Netflix film.

It’s not always easy to play a difficult, possibly unlikable character, but Bening nails it in an enormously watchable performance that, more than once, made me turn to my wife and say, “She’s just incredible. Isn’t she incredible?” If I had a vote, I think it would be for her, because she’s just so good. Bening’s been doing this for decades, has been nominated five times and deserved to win at least once (I would have given her the Oscar for her work in The Kids Are All Right over Natalie Portman in Black Swan). I think she deserves it again here, but like Hüller, I think her nomination is the reward.

About that comment regarding who took Robbie’s nomination, think about it. Mulligan was a lock from day one, as were the other two actresses I’m about to discuss, which means that for whatever reason, they went with the two esteemed veterans over Robbie. If you’re asking me how I would have voted, I’m honestly not sure. Emma Stone, Lily Gladstone, Mulligan and Bening for sure. That leaves Hüller.

I have to say, I think I give it to Hüller here, maybe by a whisker. The irony of Ryan Gosling’s nomination for playing Ken while Robbie wasn’t for playing Barbie is obvious, but that doesn’t mean Hüller doesn’t deserve to be here.

I will once again reference my policy noted above. Whose nomination would you take away so that Robbie could be here? I’m genuinely asking. If you feel strongly enough to talk about it, you can message me at @6wordreviews on Instagram. As long as you’re civil, I promise I’ll respond.

Now, to the two actresses who could actually win this. Stone and Gladstone.

We’ll discuss Gladstone first because she’s not in as much of her movie as the other nominees are in theirs. There is precedence in this very category, though, once again involving the great McDormand, who won it for Fargo 1997 despite only appearing in 36 minutes of a 98-minute movie. Her co-star, William H. Macy, was nominated for Best Supporting Actor despite appearing in 38 minutes. When you think of that film, who do you think of? Of course, you think of McDormand’s Marge, and the same is true of Killers. Gladstone is the heart and soul of the film. Even if she’s not in it as much as Leonardo DiCaprio or Robert De Niro, to call her performance anything other than a lead role is an insult.

Stone, of course, has a more conventional lead role in Poor Things, a terrific take on the Frankenstein story. It’s hard not to consider Emma Stone as one of the finest —if not the finest— actress of her generation. By the way, this is a generation that includes Carey Mulligan (Stone is 35, Mulligan is 38). Stone has been nominated for her acting four times (she has a Best Picture nod this year as well, as one of Poor Things’ producers), and I think we can all expect this to be far from the last time she and Mulligan square off in this category.

If all things were totally equal, I believe Stone would win this award. However, all things are not equal, which is why I don’t believe she will. In my mind, there are two very important factors working against her. The first is Gladstone potentially becoming the first Native American actress to win an Oscar. I think that will be a very hard thing for people to pass up and miss out on being a part of something special, even tangentially, by voting for her.

The other is a bit more sinister: jealousy. Honestly, I think that is just a big part of what will keep Stone from winning. I think the concept of an actress capturing this award twice before she turns 36 is too much for too many people in this town to handle. Will that keep her from ever winning again? No, but I do think it will keep her from winning this year, hence my conviction that Gladstone will make history instead.

Who Should Win: Annette Bening
Who Will Win: Lily Gladstone

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“Casting directors play an essential role in filmmaking,” said Academy CEO Bill Kramer and Academy President Janet Yang in a joint statement. “And as the Academy evolves, we are proud to add casting to the disciplines that we recognize and celebrate, we congratulate our Casting Directors Branch members on this exciting milestone and for their commitment and diligence throughout this process.”

“On behalf of the members of the Casting Directors Branch, we’d like to thank the Board of Governors, the Awards Committee and Academy leadership for their support. This award is a deserved acknowledgment of our casting directors’ exceptional talents and a testament to the dedicated efforts of our branch,” said Academy Casting Directors Branch governors Richard Hicks, Kim Taylor-Coleman and Debra Zane. The Casting Directors Branch was created in July 2013 and currently has close to 160 members.

When the Academy combined the two best sound mixing and editing categories in 2020 (to the Best Sound category) and lowered the number of awards on the telecast from 24 to 23, the clamoring became louder to honor casting directors with their fellow department heads and bring the total back to an even two dozen.

Curiously, one of the major impediments to the move was from the Directors’ branch of the Academy, which was concerned about the word “director” in a casting director’s title. Unlike the director of photography, who is also known as a cinematographer, the establishment of a casting category for the Academy Awards faced objections.

The news was met with a predictable amount of joy from casting directors, with A Quiet Place and its sequel’s Jodi Angstreich proclaiming, “It’s a big friggin’ deal!” Lara Mayfield, who has been David Fincher’s exclusive casting director for more than two decades, said, “I am so happy! I am also grateful to the many people who worked tirelessly on our behalf, especially David Rubin.”

Rubin served three consecutive terms as AMPAS president, from 2019 to 2022, before he was succeeded by Yang. It was well-known how much work he did behind the scenes to make this happen.

Other casting directors were thrilled that their work will finally be paid the respect it deserves, with Kahleen Crawford, whose recent films include Living, The Lost Daughter and All of Us Strangers, saying, “To have the contribution of casting directors finally recognized and celebrated by the Academy is an important moment. It’s not only casting directors and their teams who have been waiting and campaigning for this – so many directors, producers, actors and other screen professionals have passionately lent their voices in support. It’s incredibly exciting to know that from 2025 our work will be recognized at the Oscars in the way so many of our creative colleagues’ work is and the way it deserves to be.”

Allison Estrin, whose credits include the Indies Mass and Goodnight Mommy, tied it to the work they do and those actors who get recognition, saying, “For almost a hundred years the casting community has been immensely proud as the Academy has honored some of the greatest performances ever captured on film. We’re now extremely excited that our contribution to those films is also being acknowledged.”

Other casting directors pointed to how this will change the way the craft is perceived, both inside and outside the industry. Gohar Gazazyan, who has worked on such successful TV shows as The Walking Dead franchise and Julia, pointed out, “Recognition for casting directors’ contributions to film is long overdue. An Oscar will finally spotlight the work of casting directors and in doing so, will help people better understand and appreciate the Artists who assemble the casts of their beloved movies.”

“A great Casting Director has more than just a deep knowledge of actors,” she continued, “they have incredible instincts about what an actor is capable of doing if given the opportunity. They are engineers of great ensembles, carefully putting each piece of the puzzle together to shape the telling of our favorite stories. It’s an essential collaboration in filmmaking and it deserves to be recognized. This Oscar means so much to our community. We are all so grateful and thrilled that this day has finally come!”

Likewise, Mark Bennett, whose work includes It Follows, Zero Dark Thirty, and C’mon C’mon, echoed the thought, saying, “This will hopefully get more people thinking about what goes into casting, a craft that traditionally hasn’t gotten much attention.”

Bennett also offered a reminder about the nature of filmmaking and the team effort that makes it happen, adding, “Any time a department is rewarded this way, it’s a reminder of the collaborative nature of filmmaking, that every film is made by hundreds of artists and craftspeople, which is good for the appreciation of filmmaking more generally.”

Maribeth Fox, whose work includes Lion and Carol, had a decidedly practical take on the news, which she called, “exciting” and added, “It’s not the statue or the fanfare that we are looking forward to, but a wider acknowledgment of our collaborative art form in the filmmaking process. It will truly be an honor just to be nominated.”

Even amidst the celebration, there was the recognition of those who came before and whose work perhaps might have been noted by the Academy, had they been given the chance.

Barbara McCarthy, whose work includes The Spectacular Now and Five Feet Apart, said, “I’m grateful that the Academy has finally recognized the contribution that casting directors make towards each film having a talented and cohesive cast that brings every character to life with depth and authenticity,” but added, “I’m deeply sorry that our trailblazing casting directors, Marion Doherty and Lynn Stallmaster aren’t here to celebrate this historic moment with us.”

With this major change, it leaves open the door for another. Perhaps we’ll see an Oscars category for stunt performers in the near future.

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After a dual strike summer that sent production to a screeching halt in 2023, it was unclear what Hollywood would have in store for fall and winter. We all swallowed Barbenheimer whole, but after six months of bitter negotiations, all good faith built during the summer could’ve easily crumpled to the ground like an atomic bomb being dropped on a Barbie dream house.

That’s when picket signs went down and some of the year’s best films went up.

With everyone presumably done watching Suits, time freed up. What better way to fill it than to drop an almost four-hour Martin Scorsese film into a block once inhabited almost exclusively by Mike Ross and Harvey Specter?

A plethora of films quickly arrived, made well and without AI. Impressive performances and artistry that proved Alexander Payne and Paul Giamatti together could do no wrong —and that writer/director/aspiring auteur Emerald Fennell knows how to make us squirm in a movie seat better than most. From Nic Cage giving dream performances in the darkly funny Dream Scenario to Natalie Portman showing how far an actor will go to nail a role in May December, there’s been a ton of top-notch film performances to consider in the last two months.

Here are five that captivated me from the looks of early awards season.

Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)

Paul Giamatti is in an acting class all by himself. However, the one-time Oscar-nominated Giamatti didn’t get an Oscar nod for his struggling author/wine snob character in Alexander Payne’s Sideways in 2005. He got it for Cinderella Man in 2006. Now he’s back with Payne playing an equally curmudgeonly professor at an East Coast prep school who’s forced to stay there over the winter break in 1970 with a group of bratty “holdovers.” Not that he’s thrilled about it, something he’s willing to share with just about anyone who will listen.

That includes troubled student Angus Tully (newcomer Dominic Sessa), who has to stay behind when all the other students take off for a ski trip. How Giamatti’s character (Paul Hunham) evolves in his relationship with Angus is a joy to watch and a crash course in fine acting. As Hunham tells Angus once they start to share a bond: “I find the world a bitter and complicated place. And it seems to feel the same way about me.”

Giamatti has already locked down wins at the Golden Globes win and the Critic’s Choice Awards, so it seems like we’ll soon be able to toast him for the Oscar – just not with Merlot (sorry, Sideways reference).

Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Since we’re talking The Holdovers, there’s another performance that’s cleaning up this awards season: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, who also won at the Golden Globes and Critic’s Choice Awards (amongst others) with her co-star Giamatti. Randolph plays the prep school’s head chef, Mary Lamb, a mom who’s grieving the recent loss of her son in Vietnam. In playing Mary, Randolph gives an acting class in less is more, accomplishing more with an under-the-breath grunt than most do with actual words. Left at the school with Paul and Angus over winter break, her character does her best to encourage Hunham to positively influence Angus in a heartfelt performance that’s wildly adept, touching and gutsy.

A Philadelphia native who graduated from the Yale School of Drama, the 37-year-old Randolph is already well-schooled in the art of acting. Come Oscars time, she might just get her first degree from the Academy for Best Supporting Actress.

© 2023 Focus Features LLC

Colman Domingo (Rustin)

As a man fighting the forces of racism and homophobia in America to architect the 1963 March on Washington, the event where Dr. Martin Luther King birthed his “I Have a Dream” speech, Colman Domingo’s performance as queer civil rights pioneer Bayard Rustin is a true marvel. Watching him embody the historical figure, filmgoers get an up-close look at how our country’s most impactful peaceful protest came together and the toll of what being marginalized in America looks like. There are many lines in the film that Rustin recites with great poetic power, but the one that stands out most is: “I can’t surrender my differences. The world won’t let me.”

Should he get a nomination for Best Actor, it might be tough to defeat Giamatti given the latter’s early season award wins, but Domingo’s Rustin is an epic portrayal and worth a watch.

Charles Melton (May December)

For supporting actor, the fresh-faced Charles Melton (formerly of the CW’s Riverdale) has a better-than-average shot at an Oscar nom. Not to mention in a category that will likely see him come up against talent like Robert DeNiro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie), who may or may not be Ken-nough.

In May December, Melton plays Joe, a 32-year-old man-child embroiled in a murky romance that started in middle school at 13 with Gracie (Julianne Moore), a woman who was 36. Now, married to her with three kids, we ponder how his growth may have been stunted at the hands of a woman who served time because of the ordeal and possibly hijacked his childhood.

Melton’s performance is extremely subtle, almost like observing someone being held captive. Watching Joe juggle hidden trauma and being a father of three (who are closer to him in age than most would like), is one compelling reason to watch this film. The other is all the great scenes where Portman and Moore go toe-to-toe. Whether Melton wins a nomination or not, he’s a clear breakout this season for his character’s caterpillar-to-butterfly transformation, a metaphor that the film is happy to beat you over the head with.

Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)

When Oliver Quick (Barry Keoghan), an introverted Oxford student befriends an aristocratic student named Felix (Jacob Elordi), he orchestrates an invite to stay with his family for the summer at their castle estate called Saltburn. It’s a life that Oliver quickly becomes enamored with; one that’s too rich for anyone’s good. Soon, alcohol and envy are flowing in equal parts inside a world created by Oscar-winning writer Emerald Fennell, whose brilliant Promising Young Woman screenplay (2020) turned her into a promising young filmmaker.

Lots about this film cannot be said here, but Keoghan’s understated performance as a man with a royal crush on the lifestyle of the rich and famous is a darkly comedic cautionary tale that might just kick Keoghan’s name into the Oscar conversation once again. The Irish-born Keoghan was nominated for best supporting actor last year for The Banshees of Inisherin (2022). Getting a nomination two years in a row might be asking a lot from the Academy, but the Saltburn performance is Keoghan’s more enduring role for the ages. Time to run it back with Barry.

Photo courtesy of MGM and Amazon Studios

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Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series

The actors in this category run the gamut when it comes to the work they’re doing Let’s get to who they are and discuss who will win and why.

The nominees are:

• Bill Hader (Barry)
• Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)
• Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
• Jason Segel (Shrinking)
• Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)

With all his talent and wit, it’s astounding that Martin Short has never won an Emmy for his acting. He has won the Emmy twice before, but for his other abilities. Once in 1983 for writing SCTV, the other for producing the AFI show that honored Mel Brooks in 2014. Short was also nominated for this Emmy last year but lost to Sudeikis, who won for the second straight year.

Short is hilarious and heartfelt in Only Murders and it’s a shame that he doesn’t seem to have a chance at winning this. I believe he will eventually be recognized for his onscreen brilliance, but it’s not going to be this year.

Segel’s first nomination is well earned, but I think he has less of a chance than Short. Two former winners are above him, as well as an actor who showcased just what a splendid performer he has become after being on screen since he was a teenager.

Sudeikis has won this category in each of the last two years, with Hader winning the Emmy twice in a row before him. It took Eugene Levy and the final season of Schitt’s Creek to interrupt them. That might suggest that one of them will come out the winner in their final head-to-head matchup. Both shows ended their magnificent runs a couple of months ago.

Enter Jeremy Allen White, who first showed up on the small screen in his mid-teens, then becoming a series lead at 19 in Showtime’s Shameless, where he spent 11 seasons playing a tortured, unlucky genius. That was an excellent training ground for The Bear, which has him playing a more adult version of that character to great results.

Watching White play Carmy on the Hulu series is a delight, even when his considerable neuroses are driving the audience nuts. He has so much charm and charisma as well as pathos and engaging faults that allow us to see ourselves in him. It’s an absolute tour de force and he is going to win the first of what I imagine will be several consecutive trophies in this category (even if it is more of a drama than a comedy).

Who Should Win: Jeremy Allen White
Who Will Win: Jeremy Allen White

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series

The 12th and final entry in this series brings us to Best Actress in a Comedy Series.

The nominees are:

• Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
• Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)
• Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
• Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face)
• Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)

I think what Lyonne did on Poker Face was one of the more entertaining and unique performances of the year. Unfortunately, I don’t think she’ll win due to the show’s lack of nominations in other categories.

Brosnahan won the Emmy several years ago for the first season of Maisel. She’s always been good and has received a nomination for all five seasons, but I don’t think that warrants a win. Despite Brosnahan switching things up in the final season, it feels like she was nominated again out of habit.

Applegate has won an Emmy for Guest Actress in a Comedy Series for her 2004 role in Friends but has never won the lead category, despite being nominated four times prior. With her announcement that she is retiring from acting due to her having been diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, there’s a chance that she may finally win the Emmy as a career send-off. That being said, I don’t think she will.

I think this category’s Emmy winner is a foregone conclusion, with Quinta Brunson winning for her terrific work in Abbott Elementary, which she created. The only contender who could beat her is Ortega, who won lots of new fans with her performance as Wednesday‘s titular character. There was subtlety in what she did that was easy to miss, but once you see it, you appreciate her work more. For instance, she does not blink on camera once in the whole season.

This category might be the easiest to call, however, this one’s the trickiest. That being said, I have no doubt that it’s Brunson’s Emmy.

Who Should Win: Quinta Brunson
Who Will Win: Quinta Brunson

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Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series

The nominees are:

• Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)
• Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
• Henry Winkler (Barry)
• Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)
• James Marsden (Jury Duty)
• Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
• Phil Dunster (Ted Lasso)

The Bear and Barry are two dark, dramatic shows (some would argue that The Bear is a drama that sometimes has some funny stuff in it) up against Jury Duty, Abbott Elementary and Ted Lasso. Although none of these are similar types of shows, they’re all considered comedies.

Having just watched Season Two of The Bear, I have a much greater appreciation for Moss-Bachrach’s performance than in Season One. I think he’ll be very hard to beat next year. This year, however, he’s up against actors who are more likely to win for their performances.

Speaking of more likely candidates, Winkler has won this award before, for Barry’s very funny first season. Carrigan has now been nominated three times, but I don’t think either of them wins. Carrigan’s NoHo Hank has been the funniest part of Barry since the beginning. This fourth and final season saw him both funny and heartbreakingly earnest. That being said, I think the show has won all the awards it’s going to win.

Williams’ work on Abbott is wry and wonderful. I think he’ll win an Emmy at some point, but not yet. I think two of his co-stars will win their categories, but he has the advantage of coming back with many more seasons of the show. Unlike the last three men on the list, he’ll have more chances to win.

Brett Goldstein has won the Emmy each of the last two years. He could win it again, but I don’t think he will. His co-star Phil Dunster was marvelous in Ted Lasso’s final season and has a realistic shot at unseating Goldstein.

There’s also James Marsden, who was incredible playing a smarmy version of himself in the sleeper hidden camera series Jury Duty. It’s hard not to be a fan of Marsden, who has been doing excellent work for many years, but especially after watching this show. He’s really funny in a way that I’m not sure many knew he could be.

Jury Duty has earned so many nominations it seems as though the voters are also fans. I can see Marsden waltzing out of there with a trophy in his hands. If I were voting, I’d have a hard time deciding between Goldstein, Dunster and Marsden. I might even consider voting for Carrigan. I would give my vote to Dunster, but won’t be upset when they call Marsden’s name.

Who Should Win: Phil Dunster
Who Will Win: James Marsden

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series

The nominees are:

• Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
• Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)
• Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)
• Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
• Jessica Williams (Shrinking)
• Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
• Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)

Jessica Williams is very talented but I don’t believe she’ll be winning the Emmy this year. Neither will Juno Temple, who was wonderful in all three seasons of Ted Lasso. Temple took a stock character and made her adorable, breathing intelligence and life into her in the process. She deserves this nomination, but won’t win.

I don’t think her co-star (and former winner) Hannah Waddingham will win either. She was also excellent in Lasso’s farewell, as was Alex Borstein (another former winner) in her final season of Maisel. Both were just as good as —if not better— than their performances in the years when they won this award, but that’s the thing about the Emmy’s. You can win for your work one year and lose another despite giving a better performance because the voters prefer someone else. You can’t get that in film, because each movie is a one-off. With TV having multiple seasons and opportunities to reward talent, sometimes your brilliance from one year to the next can be taken for granted.

Ayo Edebiri was terrific in the first season of The Bear and deserves to be here as well, but I don’t think she’s going to get enough votes to surpass the Abbott co-stars battling it out for the second straight year.

Now for the two people I think are the leading contenders. Last year I thought one of these two actress from Abbott Elementary would win this category. However, the one I thought deserved to win but wouldn’t wound up taking the gold. One year later and it’s déjà vu all over again.

I was certain that James’ crazy like a fox Abbott Elementary school principal was going to take this award last year, but that Ralph’s wise kindergarten teacher deserved it. With Ralph having won instead — not to diminish her wonderful work — I was able to pay more attention to what James was doing. The way she takes a lunatic and makes her so enjoyable to watch is almost subversive. I found her somewhat annoying in the first season, but that changed in Season Two. She’s become one of my favorite characters.

Last year I thought James would win, although Ralph had my personal vote. This year, I want to say that James is going to win, but I think people will continue to reward the legendary Ralph. Funny that I’m switching my predictions one year later (and hoping I’m wrong).

Who Should Win: Janelle James
Who Will Win: Sheryl Lee Ralph

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I’ve been talking about Succession over the past several categories. Although it’s going to come up again in the actress category, half of the six actor nominees are all from that show. That should give you a clue as to where my predictions are headed.

Let’s dive in.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series

The nominees are:

• Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
• Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us)
• Jeff Bridges (The Old Man)
• Brian Cox (Succession)
• Kieran Culkin (Succession)
• Jeremy Strong (Succession)

Jeff Bridges is great in The Old Man, but I don’t think a win is likely.

I don’t predict that Brian Cox will win either. He’s brilliant, but I think Succession is going to end without him winning anything for it (his one previous Emmy win came more than 30 years ago). If he had been in more than three episodes of this final season, he might have had a better chance. Even with the overwhelming presence he had over the entire series, it’s tough to give a Lead Actor award to someone who wasn’t the show’s primary focus.

Pedro Pascal is a recent favorite of mine and I will watch him in just about anything. If his competition wasn’t so stiff, he might be the frontrunner as The Last of Us was spectacular. Pascal and his co-star Bella Ramsey are incredible in the post-apocalyptic series, but I think his chances to win will go up in a year when he’s not up against four actors whose shows are ending.

Let’s talk about those last three. If it’s co-star against co-star, I’ll take Strong over Culkin, because Strong’s Kendall Roy was more central to the show’s final season storyline than Culkin’s Roman. That puts Strong up against the man who should win, the esteemed Mr. Odenkirk.

Odenkirk has been incredible as Saul Goodman for over a decade. First on Breaking Bad, then on the spinoff, Better Call Saul. Odenkirk despite having won two Emmys for his writing, he’s never won for his acting. Odenkirk has deserved to win for his acting before, but I think that he’s going to walk empty-handed. He shouldn’t, but thanks to Succession ending its run at the same time as Saul, I believe he will be overshadowed.

I want to be wrong and watch Odenkirk hop up the steps and take his trophy. However my money’s on Strong.

Who Should Win: Bob Odenkirk
Who Will Win: Jeremy Strong

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series

The nominees are:

• Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters)
• Keri Russell (The Diplomat)
• Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)
• Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us)
• Sarah Snook (Succession)
• Melanie Lynskey, (Yellowjackets)

I first noticed Horgan with Catastrophe, a show she co-created and starred in for which she earned a writing nomination in 2016. Bad Sisters is enjoyable but is a much bigger hit in Britain than the U.S. I don’t think Horgan wins.

Moss is a former winner in this category. I think she can be a contender again, but I suspect it will come with the show’s sixth and final season, which is expected to hit Hulu sometime in 2024. Her work on the show is consistently great, but I don’t her returning to the podium this year.

Ramsey is that rare child actor who turns into a force to be reckoned with as an adult. What she and Pedro Pascal did together in The Last of Us was remarkable. That being said, it was the first season of a show that will have at least two more. There is ample time to reward her for this role.

That leaves three. Keri Russell earned her fourth nomination for The Diplomat, a great show that she’s terrific in. If not for the final season of Succession, she might have the Emmy. Since it’s Succession‘s swan song, I believe Sarah Snook is going to get more votes.

Melanie Lynskey deserved to win the Emmy last year for her work in Yellowjackets but lost to Zendaya (who was not nominated this year). She deserves to win it again, but won’t. Lynskey is great on that show, just as she is in everything she does. As much as I want her to give an acceptance speech at the Emmys, it won’t be this year.

Who Should Win: Melanie Lynskey
Who Will Win: Sarah Snook

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Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series

The nominees are:

• Nicholas Braun (Succession)
• Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
• Alan Ruck (Succession)
• Alexander Skarsgård (Succession)
• F. Murray Abraham (The White Lotus)
• Michael Imperioli (The White Lotus)
• Theo James (The White Lotus)
• Will Sharpe (The White Lotus)

In a year where these two shows were such juggernauts that other deserving nominees like Giancarlo Esposito and Jonathan Banks from Better Call Saul were ignored, I think it comes down to which show people liked better. This will dictate the winner.

Let’s cover The White Lotus nominees first. James and Sharpe both earned their first nominations here, with Abraham netting his fourth (along with one Oscar). Imperioli has won one, for The Sopranos. I think that of the four, Sharpe’s performance is the best, but none of them quite measure up to the fearsome foursome that Succession offers.

Based on the reaction others have to the show, I believe that one of the Succession gentlemen will win out.

Macfadyen won last year, beating out co-star Kieran Culkin, who has since moved on to the Lead Actor category. That means the defending champ has to hold off three other co-stars to win another trophy. Skarsgård was very good as the hotshot raider trying to take over Logans’ company, but I would have given his nomination to Banks.

The same applies to Ruck, who played Connor, the eldest Roy brother. I like Ruck. He was very good, but I think Esposito deserved the nod more for his work as Gus Fring in Better Call Saul.

That leaves Nicholas Braun, who is brilliant as Cousin Greg. If I had to choose one actor on the show whose work I loved the most, it would almost certainly be him. He somehow makes a spineless weasel engaging and sympathetic.

However, I used the word “almost.” The one thing that would keep me from choosing Braun is Macfadyen, who works on about 37 different levels while playing the devious and ultimately successful Tom. Last year, I thought Culkin would win this, but that Macfadyen deserved it. This year, with no Culkin, Macfadyen not only deserves it for one of the year’s best performances in any category, but will take home the gold.

Who Should Win: Matthew Macfadyen
Who Will Win: Matthew Macfadyen

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series

Last year, The White Lotus won a lot of awards in the Limited/Anthology Series or Movie category. This year, it has moved to the Drama category.

The nominees are:

• Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul)
• Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
• J. Smith-Cameron (Succession)
• Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
• Meghann Fahy (The White Lotus)
• Sabrina Impacciatore (The White Lotus)
• Aubrey Plaza (The White Lotus)
• Simona Tabasco (The White Lotus)

Coolidge won for her performance in this show last year and is probably going to win again, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

First, let’s dismiss Smith-Cameron. She’s a wonderful actress who is terrific on Succession (and has earned her second nomination in this category for her role) but is overshadowed by both her co-stars and the enormous talent beside her in this category. Likewise, as good as both Impacciatore and Tabasco are in Lotus, at least two of their co-stars are better.

Debicki is terrific as Princess Diana, but this isn’t her year.

That leaves three White Lotus actresses and the woman who should win. Aubrey Plaza is wonderful in everything she does (have you seen Emily the Criminal?). I think she deserved recognition for her work in Parks and Recreation, but I can’t go back in time for that.

As good as she is, Fahy’s work as a put-upon wife with an agenda of her own was better. While Plaza’s work was dynamite, Fahy’s was more subtle and dynamic.

The winner of this category should be Seehorn. For six seasons and 63 episodes, she has been remarkable as Kim Wexler and deserved to win this trophy a long time ago (this is only the second time she has even been nominated). The fact that she hasn’t is a travesty.

Sadly, I don’t think she’s going to win, because I think Coolidge is going to take her second Emmy for playing the character Tanya McQuoid-Hunt. I love Coolidge as a performer. I think she’s great in this show and this role, but I think Seehorn deserves it more.

To Coolidge’s credit, the danger her character experiences as the season progresses comes through in a way that is much more fleshed out and developed than what she did in the first season, which was a more straightforward comedic performance. I think the familiarity of her having won previously for her portrayal of the same character and adding that extra layer in this second season will get her back on stage to accept another trophy.

Who Should Win: Rhea Seehorn
Who Will Win: Jennifer Coolidge

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Let’s get right to the nominees!

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

The nominees are:

• Steven Yeun (Beef)
• Taron Egerton (Black Bird)
• Michael Shannon (George and Tammy)
• Evan Peters (Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
• Daniel Radcliffe (Weird: The Al Yankovic Story)
• Kumail Nanjiani (Welcome to Chippendales

As noted yesterday, I don’t believe anyone from the Chippendales miniseries will win anything. Kumail Nanjiani is a talented actor, and I’m glad he was recognized with a nomination, but I don’t think this is his night.

The same can be said of the brilliant Michael Shannon, who is excellent as country music legend George Jones. As good as he is, his co-star Jessica Chastain overshadows him in the show.

Likewise, Taron Egerton is tremendous as Black Bird‘s lead, but Paul Walter Hauser is off the charts. Egerton’s strong work may be lost in the shuffle.

That leaves us with three contenders, each with a legitimate shot to win. The issue with a category like this is the disparity of tone. It’s difficult to compare a Weird Al Yankovic performance with another actor portraying Jeffrey Dahmer in the same division. Add Yeun’s work as Beef’s beaten down and range-engulfed Danny, and it’s near-impossible to compare them.

I thought what Radcliffe did as Yankovic was charming, funny and different. He chose to play the star musician rather than impersonate him — which is a big difference and the key to successfully portraying a real person.

Not to take anything away from Evan Peters’s stellar work playing Dahmer or what Yeun did in Beef, but sometimes making good comedy is harder than good drama. Putting them in the same category against each other is perplexing.

So, let’s talk about Yeun and Peters. Both actors have built impressive resumes over the years. Peters won an Emmy two years ago for Best Supporting Actor A Limited or Anthology Series or Movie for his work in Mare of Easton. This is his second nomination and Yeun’s first. Radcliffe deserves this award, but I think the winner will be one of these two.

I’m going to go with Peters for two reasons. The first is that he’s playing a real person, which always adds a degree of difficulty. The second is who he’s playing. Making one of the most notorious serial killers of the last half century a watchable character is what I think will get him his second trophy.

Who Should Win: Daniel Radcliffe
Who Will Win: Evan Peters

Outstanding Lead Actor Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

As we take a look at the Best Actress category, I was shocked that Rachel Weisz was not nominated for her turn as twins in Dead Ringers. Her work as Beverly and Elliot Mantle was superb. Whose nomination would I revoke to give it to Ms. Weisz? Good question.

The nominees in this category are:

• Ali Wong (Beef)
• Riley Keough (Daisy Jones & the Six)
• Lizzy Caplan (Fleishman is in Trouble)
• Jessica Chasten (George and Tammy)
• Dominque Fishback (Swarm)
• Kathryn Hahn (Tiny Beautiful Things)

This is difficult. I am a fan of these women and these performances, especially Lizzy Caplan’s. However, I think she’s in the wrong category. I think she’s a better fit for Supporting Actress (and I’d take Juliette Lewis’ nomination, in case you want to move her into that section). I would have given Caplan’s nod to Weisz.

I don’t think Caplan is going to win this. Nor do I think Hahn will. It’s hard not to love Hahn in everything she does, but as with her co-star Merritt Wever, I don’t think Tiny Beautiful Things has enough juice to carry her to the top.

Riley Keough’s performance in Daisy Jones & the Six was excellent; she deserves this as much as anyone. In a different year, she might have a better shot if she were the only one to sing her songs. Another contender in this race did that while also playing a real person (we’ll get to that in a minute).

As for the remarkable Dominique Fishback and her work as a troubled woman who becomes obsessed with a pop star in Donald Glover’s pitch-dark comedy Swarm, I would like to see her pull a big upset. Nothing against Wong or Chastain, both of whom are tremendous, but there’s something about the power that Fishback brings to the role of Dre that is emotionally devastating.

I had trouble with Beef regarding the story and the characters. I enjoyed the performances. Although Wong is a comedian who has recently become an actor, she’s pretty good. She’s very good at this and has a very good chance to win, but I don’t think she will.

This leaves us with Jessica Chastain, the other actress singing her songs in this category. The difference between her and Keough? Chastain is singing Tammy Wynette songs and having to follow in the legend’s footsteps. I think that gets her over the top. That being said, I’ll be hoping for a Fishback upset.

Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain
Who Should Win: Dominique Fishback

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