Predicting the 96th Academy Awards Winners: Best Actor Category

Here is the Academy Awards race that is the closest and the toughest to call, Best Actor.

Thanks to all the recent awards shows and events occurring before Oscar night, it seems like a lot of these Oscar races are foregone conclusions by the time we get to the actual ceremony. However, that’s not the case this year, as I have discussed over the last few days. Honestly, I think Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the only sure thing, though I would be genuinely shocked if Robert Downey Jr. doesn’t also win.

Meanwhile, in the Best Actor race, it is a real toss-up between the two frontrunners. So without any further delay, let’s name the nominees. They are: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer, Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers, Jeffrey Wright for American Fiction, Bradley Cooper for Maestro and Colman Domingo for Rustin.

First things first, as usual. I have long been a fan of both Jeffrey Wright and Colman Domingo, each of whom has earned his first Oscar nomination. Both are well deserved. Domingo gives a truly transcendent performance in a mediocre movie about the legendary activist, and it’s a pleasure to see him honored here. Wright, who is for my money the best James Gordon ever to appear on the big screen, is just as tremendous in writer-director Cord Jefferson’s winning satire. They both belong here, but neither one is going to win. Sometimes in these commentaries I talk about how a certain performance might win an award in any other year, but I honestly think that doesn’t apply to either of these men or their work. I think, as good as these performances are, they are good enough to be nominated in just about any given year, but never to win.

However, since both performances are this year, then the conversation becomes academic, and so we move on to Bradley Cooper. This is a special case. Maestro is the second film he has directed, and he has starred in both, each time directing himself to a Best Actor nomination. A few years ago, when he did it with A Star Is Born, he lost the Oscar to Rami Malek, playing Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. In the lead-up to that Oscar ceremony, I said that Malek was going to win and that he deserved it. As time has gone by, though, that judgment hasn’t aged well. Especially — and you might find this odd, but I will explain — after seeing Taron Egerton’s performance as Elton John in Rocketman. Both Egerton and Cooper sang their own songs, while Malek lip-synched his. Also, Cooper directed himself, which is not easy. Don’t get me wrong, Rami was terrific in the movie, but in retrospect, I think Brad was robbed.

This year, however, no hindsight will change the fact that, while he is as outstanding as Leonard Bernstein, it feels like he was absolutely begging the Academy to give him an Oscar. I believe that there’s a desperation to the movie that somehow taints it. Maybe it’s because so many people — myself included — feel like he chose to tell the wrong story, I don’t know, but while I enjoyed the film, it wasn’t as good as maybe it should have been. I know a lot of other people feel that way, too, which is one more reason why he won’t win this.

The two biggest reasons for Cooper’s loss are Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti, both of whom are off-the-charts brilliant in Oppenheimer and The Holdovers, respectively. These two are so good, it’s almost a shame they had to happen in the same year because they both deserve to win. Murphy transforms himself into the father of the atomic bomb, and no matter what I may think of the movie as a whole — I think it’s very good, but not great. I know I’m in the minority here, both about the film and Christopher Nolan, who I think is a fantastic filmmaker, while also being terribly overrated.

Murphy’s brilliance is undeniable, but the same can be said for Giamatti, who never seems to do anything that isn’t amazing. That’s certainly true here, as he takes a difficult character who verges on the supremely unlikable, and gives him heart and charisma, while also pulling off a genuine arc. The moment at the end of the movie in which his wall-eyed teacher tells his young charge which eye is the right one to look at does something that’s incredibly hard for an actor to pull off. The delivery is matter-of-fact, but the meaning behind it is so deep, without coming off as maudlin or cloying, it can bring tears to your eyes. It sure did to mine.

These two guys are in a real horse race. Murphy has been the frontrunner since his movie premiered in July, and while Giamatti has been in the race since he turned up on screens in October, his rise to challenge Murphy has happened slowly, a bit at a time, as more and more people saw The Holdovers and found themselves talking about Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Paul Giamatti and holy cow, were they phenomenal or what? As that’s happened, Giamatti has caught Murphy, and I dare say surged past him. The charming photo of Giamatti at an In-N-Out Burger after winning the Golden Globe can only help.

It really could go to either guy, but I don’t care that Murphy won the SAG award. I still think Giamatti pulls it out in the end. I won’t be devastated if he doesn’t, because Murphy will have earned it, but both my heart and my head say that the trophy goes home with Paul. Maybe even to In-N-Out Burger.

Who Should Win: Paul Giamatti
Who Will Win: Paul Giamatti

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