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75th Emmy Award Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor and Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie


January 9, 2024

Yesterday, we covered the Supporting Actor and Actress categories in the Limited or Anthology Series or Movie division of the Emmys. Today, we’ll be covering the lead categories.

Let’s get right to the nominees!

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

The nominees are:

  • Steven Yeun (Beef)
  • Taron Egerton (Black Bird)
  • Michael Shannon (George and Tammy)
  • Evan Peters (Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
  • Daniel Radcliffe (Weird: The Al Yankovic Story)
  • Kumail Nanjiani (Welcome to Chippendales

 

As noted yesterday, I don’t believe anyone from the Chippendales miniseries will win anything. Kumail Nanjiani is a talented actor, and I’m glad he was recognized with a nomination, but I don’t think this is his night.

The same can be said of the brilliant Michael Shannon, who is excellent as country music legend George Jones. As good as he is, his co-star Jessica Chastain overshadows him in the show.

Likewise, Taron Egerton is tremendous as Black Bird‘s lead, but Paul Walter Hauser is off the charts. Egerton’s strong work may be lost in the shuffle.

That leaves us with three contenders, each with a legitimate shot to win. The issue with a category like this is the disparity of tone. It’s difficult to compare a Weird Al Yankovic performance with another actor portraying Jeffrey Dahmer in the same division. Add Yeun’s work as Beef’s beaten down and range-engulfed Danny, and it’s near-impossible to compare them.

I thought what Radcliffe did as Yankovic was charming, funny and different. He chose to play the star musician rather than impersonate him — which is a big difference and the key to successfully portraying a real person.

Not to take anything away from Evan Peters’s stellar work playing Dahmer or what Yeun did in Beef, but sometimes making good comedy is harder than good drama. Putting them in the same category against each other is perplexing.

So, let’s talk about Yeun and Peters. Both actors have built impressive resumes over the years. Peters won an Emmy two years ago for Best Supporting Actor A Limited or Anthology Series or Movie for his work in Mare of Easton. This is his second nomination and Yeun’s first. Radcliffe deserves this award, but I think the winner will be one of these two.

I’m going to go with Peters for two reasons. The first is that he’s playing a real person, which always adds a degree of difficulty. The second is who he’s playing. Making one of the most notorious serial killers of the last half century a watchable character is what I think will get him his second trophy.

Who Should Win: Daniel Radcliffe
Who Will Win: Evan Peters

Outstanding Lead Actor Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

As we take a look at the Best Actress category, I was shocked that Rachel Weisz was not nominated for her turn as twins in Dead Ringers. Her work as Beverly and Elliot Mantle was superb. Whose nomination would I revoke to give it to Ms. Weisz? Good question.

The nominees in this category are:

  • Ali Wong (Beef)
  • Riley Keough (Daisy Jones & the Six)
  • Lizzy Caplan (Fleishman is in Trouble)
  • Jessica Chasten (George and Tammy)
  • Dominque Fishback (Swarm)
  • Kathryn Hahn (Tiny Beautiful Things)

 

This is difficult. I am a fan of these women and these performances, especially Lizzy Caplan’s. However, I think she’s in the wrong category. I think she’s a better fit for Supporting Actress (and I’d take Juliette Lewis’ nomination, in case you want to move her into that section). I would have given Caplan’s nod to Weisz.

I don’t think Caplan is going to win this. Nor do I think Hahn will. It’s hard not to love Hahn in everything she does, but as with her co-star Merritt Wever, I don’t think Tiny Beautiful Things has enough juice to carry her to the top.

Riley Keough’s performance in Daisy Jones & the Six was excellent; she deserves this as much as anyone. In a different year, she might have a better shot if she were the only one to sing her songs. Another contender in this race did that while also playing a real person (we’ll get to that in a minute).

As for the remarkable Dominique Fishback and her work as a troubled woman who becomes obsessed with a pop star in Donald Glover’s pitch-dark comedy Swarm, I would like to see her pull a big upset. Nothing against Wong or Chastain, both of whom are tremendous, but there’s something about the power that Fishback brings to the role of Dre that is emotionally devastating.

I had trouble with Beef regarding the story and the characters. I enjoyed the performances. Although Wong is a comedian who has recently become an actor, she’s pretty good. She’s very good at this and has a very good chance to win, but I don’t think she will.

This leaves us with Jessica Chastain, the other actress singing her songs in this category. The difference between her and Keough? Chastain is singing Tammy Wynette songs and having to follow in the legend’s footsteps. I think that gets her over the top. That being said, I’ll be hoping for a Fishback upset.

Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain
Who Should Win: Dominique Fishback

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