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Awards/Festivals , Television , The Daily Roundup

75th Emmy Award Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor and Actress in a Drama Series


January 11, 2024

I recently gave my Emmy predictions for the Outstanding Supporting Actor and Actress In A Drama Series categories. Today, we’re sticking to the drama series division, focusing on the leads.

I’ve been talking about Succession over the past several categories. Although it’s going to come up again in the actress category, half of the six actor nominees are all from that show. That should give you a clue as to where my predictions are headed.

Let’s dive in.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series

The nominees are:

  • Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
  • Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us)
  • Jeff Bridges (The Old Man)
  • Brian Cox (Succession)
  • Kieran Culkin (Succession)
  • Jeremy Strong (Succession)

 

Jeff Bridges is great in The Old Man, but I don’t think a win is likely.

I don’t predict that Brian Cox will win either. He’s brilliant, but I think Succession is going to end without him winning anything for it (his one previous Emmy win came more than 30 years ago). If he had been in more than three episodes of this final season, he might have had a better chance. Even with the overwhelming presence he had over the entire series, it’s tough to give a Lead Actor award to someone who wasn’t the show’s primary focus.

Pedro Pascal is a recent favorite of mine and I will watch him in just about anything. If his competition wasn’t so stiff, he might be the frontrunner as The Last of Us was spectacular. Pascal and his co-star Bella Ramsey are incredible in the post-apocalyptic series, but I think his chances to win will go up in a year when he’s not up against four actors whose shows are ending.

Let’s talk about those last three. If it’s co-star against co-star, I’ll take Strong over Culkin, because Strong’s Kendall Roy was more central to the show’s final season storyline than Culkin’s Roman. That puts Strong up against the man who should win, the esteemed Mr. Odenkirk.

Odenkirk has been incredible as Saul Goodman for over a decade. First on Breaking Bad, then on the spinoff, Better Call Saul. Odenkirk despite having won two Emmys for his writing, he’s never won for his acting. Odenkirk has deserved to win for his acting before, but I think that he’s going to walk empty-handed. He shouldn’t, but thanks to Succession ending its run at the same time as Saul, I believe he will be overshadowed.

I want to be wrong and watch Odenkirk hop up the steps and take his trophy. However my money’s on Strong.

Who Should Win: Bob Odenkirk
Who Will Win: Jeremy Strong

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series

The nominees are:

  • Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters)
  • Keri Russell (The Diplomat)
  • Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)
  • Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us)
  • Sarah Snook (Succession)
  • Melanie Lynskey, (Yellowjackets)

 

I first noticed Horgan with Catastrophe, a show she co-created and starred in for which she earned a writing nomination in 2016. Bad Sisters is enjoyable but is a much bigger hit in Britain than the U.S. I don’t think Horgan wins.

Moss is a former winner in this category. I think she can be a contender again, but I suspect it will come with the show’s sixth and final season, which is expected to hit Hulu sometime in 2024. Her work on the show is consistently great, but I don’t her returning to the podium this year.

Ramsey is that rare child actor who turns into a force to be reckoned with as an adult. What she and Pedro Pascal did together in The Last of Us was remarkable. That being said, it was the first season of a show that will have at least two more. There is ample time to reward her for this role.

That leaves three. Keri Russell earned her fourth nomination for The Diplomat, a great show that she’s terrific in. If not for the final season of Succession, she might have the Emmy. Since it’s Succession‘s swan song, I believe Sarah Snook is going to get more votes.

Melanie Lynskey deserved to win the Emmy last year for her work in Yellowjackets but lost to Zendaya (who was not nominated this year). She deserves to win it again, but won’t. Lynskey is great on that show, just as she is in everything she does. As much as I want her to give an acceptance speech at the Emmys, it won’t be this year.

Who Should Win: Melanie Lynskey
Who Will Win: Sarah Snook

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